Inflation Spikes and Housing Rebound Stalls
Economic headlines
The latest data is finally showing us the real-world impact of the “war shock,” with skyrocketing oil prices officially putting an end to the recent cooling trend in inflation. Between those rising costs at the pump and a housing market that remains stubbornly stuck, renters are feeling the squeeze even as they find themselves staying in the rental pool longer.
Inflation Resurges on Energy Spikes: Headline inflation jumped to 3.3% on an annual basis in March, fueled by a massive 21.2% monthly surge in gasoline prices (seasonally adjusted). It was the highest monthly increase in gas prices since the series began in 1967.
While core inflation (excluding food and energy) cooled slightly to 2.6%, the increase in transportation and fuel costs is expected to trickle into consumer goods prices over the next 90 days. From a multifamily perspective, the higher costs are hitting at a time when many renters are deciding what budget they can afford for their next lease.
Housing Market Gridlock Deepens: Existing-home sales dropped 3.6% in March to 3.98 million units. It was the second lowest level in the last 18 months according to the National Association of Realtors.
Despite a brief dip in mortgage rates earlier this year, the impact of the conflict with Iran pushed 30-year fixed rates back toward 6.4%, effectively pricing out 1.4 million potential buyers based on estimates from the National Association of Home Builders.
Multifamily Operational Results
As of April 12, the average U.S. occupancy rate was 93.98%, down 62 basis points from the prior year. The leased percentage was 95.79%, down 121 basis points from last year. Both metrics have displayed minimal growth since the beginning of the year.
The average number of leases signed was 2.1 per property last week. It was down by 0.8 leases per week compared to a year ago and likely led to the lower occupancy rate.
Annual net effective rent growth for new leases was 0.3%. RevPAU, which combines the change in rents and occupancy, was down 0.4% compared to a year ago.
| MSA | Annual Effective Rent Growth | Occupancy Rate |
| Atlanta, GA | -2.6% | 93.5% |
| Austin, TX | -5.3% | 91.6% |
| Dallas, TX | -1.4% | 92.8% |
| Denver, CO | -6.1% | 93.1% |
| Houston, TX | -6.0% | 92.6% |
| Las Vegas, NV | -5.5% | 94.0% |
| Miami, FL | -2.3% | 94.7% |
| Phoenix, AZ | -4.0% | 93.5% |
| San Francisco, CA | 3.7% | 96.4% |
| Seattle, WA | -0.8% | 94.9% |
| Washington, DC | -0.5% | 94.5% |
| U.S. | 0.3% | 94.0% |
Source: Radix Data as of 04/12/2026
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