Leasing at Slower Pace in Q1 2026
Economic headlines
The economic narrative has shifted from “gradual recovery” to “geopolitical volatility” as conflict in the Middle East continues to dictate the pace of inflation and interest rates. For multifamily operators, the immediate impact remains the “inflation tax” on renters’ wallets, weaker job creation, and the subsequent effect on 2026 occupancy and rent growth
- Energy Volatility: After a volatile week, Brent Crude oil climbed back above $106/bbl this morning as hopes for an immediate ceasefire in the Middle East faded. While the national gasoline average has finally plateaued at $3.98/gal—marking its first daily decline this month—consumers are still grappling with prices roughly $1.00 higher than they were 30 days ago.
- Capital Markets: Markets remain under pressure, with the S&P 500 down 5% and the Dow down nearly 6% from late February highs. Investors are increasingly defensive as “stagflation” fears move to the forefront, driven by a combination of high energy costs, sticky inflation, and a cooling labor market.
- Mortgage Rates: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) has jumped to 6.49% according to Bankrate, its highest level of 2026. While the lack of affordability in the owner-housing market boosts renter demand, the overall impact is a drag on the economy.
Multifamily operational performance
National job growth has been sluggish, and the impact is visible in the occupancy and leasing trends.
The average U.S. occupancy rate was 94.01%, steady from the prior week, but down 52 basis points from a year ago. The leased percentage was 95.81%, down a full percentage point from last year.
The average number of leases signed was 2.3 per property last week. It was down by 0.6 per week compared to a year ago.
Annual net effective rent growth for new leases has been close to flat in recent weeks, and it turned slightly negative in the latest report. The national average was -0.1%, pulled down by several metros in the -3% to -7% range. RevPAU, which combines the change in rents and occupancy, was down -0.7% compared to a year ago.
| MSA | Annual Effective Rent Growth | Occupancy Rate |
| Atlanta, GA | -3.7% | 93.5% |
| Austin, TX | -6.3% | 92.0% |
| Dallas, TX | -1.1% | 92.9% |
| Denver, CO | -7.9% | 92.9% |
| Houston, TX | -5.2% | 92.8% |
| Las Vegas, NV | -4.8% | 94.3% |
| Miami, FL | -3.6% | 94.8% |
| Phoenix, AZ | -4.6% | 93.5% |
| San Francisco, CA | 2.0% | 96.3% |
| Seattle, WA | -1.0% | 94.8% |
| Washington, DC | 2.7% | 94.4% |
| U.S. | -0.1% | 94.0% |
Source: Radix Data as of 3/22/2026
About Radix
Radix advances intelligent decision-making across the multifamily ecosystem. We provide transparent, accessible data to every stakeholder—investors, managers, brokers, lenders, and renters—enabling smarter choices that shape how we invest, live, and grow. With Radix Analytics and Radix Underwriting (redIQ), professionals can source, acquire, and manage assets with confidence. Renters benefit from RealRents, which delivers unprecedented pricing transparency and helps them find homes that truly fit their needs. Whatever your role in multifamily, Radix is the trusted source of value determination.